Unifying decision-making “silos” in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: A multidisciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDAO) framework for adaptation planning

The management of our limited natural resources has become increasingly complex due to increasing pressures from climate change, growing populations, and a rapidly changing economy and political landscape. These challenges have been further aggravated due to the lack of strategic coordination amongst the food, energy, and water (FEW) sectors when adapting to sudden or chronic perturbations (e.g., changing state laws or climatic patterns). Adaptation plans of FEW actors often concentrate on their own sub-system (e.g., farms, reservoirs) and do not consider the possible interference from simultaneously evolving adaptation decisions in other FEW sub-systems. To develop and implement adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, FEW actors must be able to effectively coordinate and identify robust management decisions over time.
To this end, this study presents the use of a multidisciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDAO) framework to integrate decisions/plans from diverse FEW actors in long-term adaptation planning. Using the FEW sectors in the Hermiston region in Oregon as a case study, the viability of the proposed framework was evaluated using two water allocation scenarios. First, a test case model was used to benchmark the performance of the proposed approach when compared to using common optimization methods (i.e., multi-objective optimization using a genetic algorithm). Secondly, the framework was used to evaluate the impact of different adaptation strategies on the long-term resilience of the Umatilla River Basin. Results from the study highlight the flexibility, scalability, and value of the proposed framework in improving coordination among FEW sectors when considering different perturbation scenarios.