Informing adaptation pathways for critical infrastructure against coastal flooding through high resolution hydrodynamic models

Critical infrastructure along coastlines in the United States is at risk from sea level rise and storm surge. Capturing this induced coastal flooding is particularly relevant to Tyndall Air Force base (AFB) near Panama City, Florida as present extreme weather events create flooding conditions, underscoring need for adaptation measures against future climate uncertainties. Adaptation planning requires accurate knowledge of risk and mechanism of failure under different scenarios of extreme precipitation, and tidal waves from storm surge and SLR. Hydrodynamic models are a useful tool to simulate flooding mechanism, nature of flood inundation, depth, and duration of flooding. Additionally, these models can identify fragile components or functions of the infrastructure system, which is valuable information for asset management or infrastructure adaptation planning. In this study, we use publicly available high-resolution topographic LiDAR data, rainfall data, tidal gage data; institution owned infrastructure data; and field measured water level data to construct high resolution hydrodynamic model for Tyndall AFB using US EPA SWMM tool. We present how such calibrated and reliable model supports adaptation decision making and inform appropriate pathways. Spatially superimposed infrastructure components over the model help to identify criticality (i.e., measure of rank of infrastructure functions) and fragility (i.e., measure of probability of failure under mechanism of inundation depth and duration) under different climate scenarios. Finally, we present application of such information in drawing suitable adaptation pathways and measures.