Implications of the Melting of Arctic Ocean Ice Cover on the World’s Water Security

Responses to meet the water needs for large urban populations and for irrigation of crops have resulted in dramatic over-pumping of aquifers in many countries. In particular, the water needs are sufficiently extensive for mega cities such that the combination of subsidence, groundwater withdrawals, and largescale diversions of surface water sources are challenging the ability to meet water needs for megacities.
While the preceding examples are sufficient evidence to demonstrate water security is already a global concern, a new issue of increasing concern is the role of ice cover in the Arctic Ocean causing polar vortices, the results of which are influencing winter climates in the northern hemisphere. The disappearance rate of the Arctic Ocean ice cover is at levels of ~13.1%/decade. Further, rates of warming in the Arctic are increasing at >2 times the global annual average. The result is that the jet stream is weakening, and evidence is mounting that there will be increased excursions of polar vortices causing very cold weather extremes in northern hemisphere areas.

The impacts to Houston in February 2021 plunged the fourth largest city in the US into a wintry nightmare without power and water. That event has been identified as related to vortex stretching, causing ~150 deaths and at least $20 billion in damage. The existence of this additional dimension is causing the so-called ‘Western Disturbances’. This is due to the breakdown of the polar jet stream that allows the expansion of Arctic cold air blasts that directly affect the global weather system now facing the high frequency and intensity of Western Disturbances that have led to heavy to moderate snowfall. This latter dimension can be regarded as Polar Vortex’s indirect effect.
This paper describes the array of trends that are causing increased insecurity of water for mega cities around the world.