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Oral

Municipal Water Infrastructure

Municipal Water Infrastructure

Robust water supply planning: Risk-based characterization of supply project timing

Tuesday, May 23, 2023
3:45 PM – 4:00 PM PDT
Room: La Sirena III
One of the most challenging tasks for water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Bringing new water supply facilities online takes five to ten years depending on complexity, financial considerations, regulatory constraints, and public acceptance of projects. Challenges in characterizing socio-economic variables in a given locality may result in uncertainties in future water demand. Climate change and variability add another layer of uncertainty in water supply planning. We present a robust water supply planning framework that incorporates: 1) a level-of-service concept to capture a utility’s willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke management strategies during extreme events; 2) quantify the risk of meeting a given level-of-service through full probabilistic water demand and supply simulations; and 3) an adaptive management framework to bring incremental water supply sources online. The framework, which is responsive to rate payers, allows the development of key variables of interest to monitor regional demand and a trigger mechanism to bring new supply sources online. The approach is demonstrated using Tampa Bay Water’s regional water supply system.