The 21st Century Relative Sea Level Rise in Anne Arundel County Maryland

The rate at which sea level is rising in recent years due to global warming has become a growing concern, most especially as it affects coastal areas of the world. The devastating impact of sea level rise (SLR) on coastal communities, ranging from coastal beach erosion, nuisance high tide flooding, saltwater pollution of low-lying farmlands, to loss of tidal wetlands is leading to a decline in social and economic activities especially in coastal areas. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 40% of the U.S. population living on the coast are inevitably vulnerable to SLR. Therefore, the objective of this study is to project relative sea level rise (RSLR) for Anne Arundel County and to estimate the contribution of land subsidence to RSLR at this location. To project RSLR for Anne Arundel County, this study combines global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) scenarios with local land subsidence measured at GPS LOYF station in Annapolis, Anne Arundel County, Maryland. Current quadratic trend of RSLR in Anne Arundel County projects that by 2100, RSLR for the County will be approximately 1.2 meters forecasting from 1992, which is 86% and 174% of the GMSLR intermediate-high and intermediate-low scenarios, respectively. Land subsidence significantly contributed to RSLR in the 20th century; however, since 2001 absolute sea level rise (ASLR) driven by climate change has significantly contributed to RSLR in this location. The results in this paper suggest considering the intermediate-high RSLR scenario for planning and decision-making in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, in relation to SLR.