A novel approach for estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation: Exploring beyond moisture availability.

Monday, May 22, 2023

5:45 PM – 6:00 PM PDT

Room: La Sirena I

Author(s)

Asphota Wasti

Ph.D. Candidate
University of Cincinnati

Co-Author(s)

KS

Katherine Schelf

Assistant Professor
Western New England University
BK

Bill Kappel

President and Chief Meteorologist
Applied Weather Associates
SR

Saiful Haque Rahat, PhD Candidate

Senior Staff Professional
Geosyntec Consultants
GM

Garima Mandavya

Graduate Assistant in Environmental Engineering
University of Cincinnati
Gaurav Atreya (he/him/his)

Graduate Assistant
University of Cincinnati
PR

Patrick Ray

Assistant Professor
University of Cincinnati

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is used widely in the design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures. The PMP is most commonly estimated using the moisture maximization approach which assumes that the extreme precipitation is limited by the moisture availability in the atmosphere. The occurrence of extreme precipitation is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by several meteorological conditions. In this study, we study the role of meteorological variables that determine the moisture availability, atmospheric stability, temperature gradient, wind direction, and magnitudes of the historical extreme precipitation events. We then propose a novel approach to estimate the PMP incorporating those atmospheric variables that are most significant during an extreme event. As extreme precipitation events are changing under climate change, our proposed combined maximization approach can help to understand the behavior of PMP in the future.